Skip to content

Tokyo’s chances of hosting 2020 Olympics

Sep 6, 2013, 1:37 PM EDT

Tokyo 2020 AP

The International Olympic Committee will make the first of three major votes at its session in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Saturday.

Nearly 100 IOC members will choose the host city of the 2020 Olympics — Istanbul, Madrid or Tokyo — via secret ballot beginning at 2:45 p.m. Eastern Time with the winner scheduled to be announced between 4 and 4:30. For more on what happens Saturday, click here.

OlympicTalk will look at the chances each city has of winning the vote. Here is a rundown of Tokyo:

IOC president Jacques Rogge will take the stage at the Buenos Aires Hilton on Saturday afternoon and announce an Olympic host city one last time. Will it go like this …

“The Games of the 32nd Olympiad are awarded to the city of … (opens envelope) … Tokyo.”

The oddsmakers say it likely will. The Associated Press called the Japanese capital a “slight favorite.” A complex mathematical formula on a website dedicated to predicting Olympic bid cities spit out Tokyo at No. 1, too.

Tokyo, which hosted the 1964 Olympics, isn’t as sexy of a pick as Istanbul. It doesn’t have as much bidding experience or IOC influence as Madrid. But it is steady, with $4.5 billion in the bank and without the unrest of Turkey (and its neighbor Syria) and the economic problems of Spain.

“Discover Tomorrow” is its slogan. It may just be in the driver’s seat after bowing out in third place in the 2016 Olympic bidding, but, as Paris 2012 can attest, that’s not always the best place to be.

“There is a sense of nervous energy as we close in on a six-year dream,” Tokyo 2020 leader Tsunekazu Takeda recently told reporters. “We live in challenging and rapidly changing times, and Tokyo’s is the best bid to deliver a dynamic Games in this climate.”

Istanbul’s chances | Madrid’s chances

There is potential to dash that dream. There’s the fact that the 2018 Winter Games are in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Does the IOC want back-to-back Asia Games?

Or the threat of an earthquake or a tsunami and the growing storyline of the leak of radiation-contaminated water at the Fukushima nuclear plant, 155 miles north of Tokyo. Takeda has said Tokyo’s air and water were unaffected by the fifth and largest leak since the plant was damaged by a 2011 tsunami.

Robert Livingstone, who produces the Olympic host city vote prediction website GamesBids.com, has Tokyo as a slight favorite over Istanbul. He said the Fukushima story is a concern but called it a “bit of a red herring.”

“The IOC knows these issues, knows it will be taken care of,” Livingstone said, noting the Olympics are still seven years down the road. “Tokyo has a really good plan, a compact plan. They developed it, did a decent job last time and improved on that plan.”

Wrestling tries to stay in Olympics | Squash’s hopes

In Japan, public support has jumped, from around 50 percent last year to about 70 (IOC poll) or 90 (Tokyo 2020 poll) today. A lack of backing back home hurt its bid for 2016. Much of the infrastructure that would be used in 2020 is already in place with a strong public transport system.

The IOC called Tokyo “a modern, dynamic city that sets global trends and, at the same time, has a strong respect for its history and culture” in its evaluation commission report in April.

“Our bid has strong and passionate public support and is united across all levels of government, sport and business,” Takeda said, “and is ready to deliver outstanding Games that will showcase the importance and inspirational power of sport.”

Key information for IOC session in Buenos Aires

Follow @nzaccardi

Latest Posts
  1. Greg Louganis recalls Olympic diving, HIV, coming out in ‘Back on Board’ film

    Aug 4, 2015, 4:23 PM EDT

    Greg Louganis HBO

    The film includes footage from Olympics from 1976 through 2012.

  2. Missy Franklin, Ryan Lochte miss medals; Katie Ledecky breaks record at Worlds

    Aug 4, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Franklin got a horrible start in the 100m backstroke.

  3. Watch NBC News report from Rio Olympic water venues

    Aug 4, 2015, 2:01 PM EDT

    Copacabana Beach

    U.S. sailors comment while training at Guanabara Bay.

  4. Watch NBC Olympics one year from Rio 2016 promo video

    Aug 3, 2015, 5:28 PM EDT

    Rio 2016

    The Olympics open on Aug. 5, 2016.

  5. Triathletes’ reactions to Rio Olympic water venue after test event

    Aug 3, 2015, 4:52 PM EDT

    AP AP

    “We swim in waters all around the world, and this was no different from anywhere else,” Gwen Jorgensen said.

  6. Misty May-Treanor competes for first time in 3 years, not a comeback

    Aug 3, 2015, 2:51 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    May-Treanor retired after the London Olympics and had a baby.

  7. David Boudia earns another World Diving Championships silver

    Aug 3, 2015, 8:59 AM EDT

    AP AP

    Boudia trounced one Chinese star but was beaten by a longtime rival.

  8. Katie Ledecky, Sun Yang open quests for history with golds at World Championships

    Aug 2, 2015, 12:13 PM EDT

    Katie Ledecky Getty Images

    Also, a U.S. Olympic champion’s world record was broken in a semifinal.

  9. Ronda Rousey knocks out Bethe Correia in 34 seconds

    Aug 2, 2015, 1:28 AM EDT

    AP AP

    Rousey is a 2008 Olympic judo bronze medalist.

  10. World Swimming Championships men’s preview

    Jul 31, 2015, 10:55 AM EDT

    Ryan Lochte Getty Images

    Action gets started Sunday in Kazan.

  11. USOC collecting data on polluted Rio Olympic water venues

    Jul 30, 2015, 3:42 PM EDT

    AP AP

    A US Sailing official maintained his stance on the Rio water from last year.

  12. Which Miracle on Ice item is the toughest for Jim Craig to sell? (video)

    Jul 30, 2015, 1:31 PM EDT

    Jim Craig AP

    Watch the goalie’s interview on The Dan Patrick Show.

  13. British Athletics clears Mo Farah after investigation

    Jul 30, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Farah was to have “blood data, supplements data, everything surrounding his medical treatment” investigated.

  14. World Swimming Championships broadcast schedule

    Jul 30, 2015, 10:12 AM EDT

    Missy Franklin, Katie Ledecky Getty Images

    NBC, NBC Sports Live Extra and Universal Sports will combine for daily coverage.